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Cole Anthony Scrivner is a 2025 graduate of the MS Program in Environmental Studies at Antioch University, New England.

Thesis Committee:

Michael Akresh, PhD, Chairperson

Eileen Helmer, PhD

Keywords

land cover map, remote sensing, Kirtland’s Warbler, Caribbean, conservation, climate change

Document Type

Thesis

Publication Date

2025

Abstract

Understanding the spatial distribution of current and future habitat for the Kirtland’s Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii) and other threatened species is critical for guiding conservation planning in The Bahamas. Our study mapped land cover and impacts of sea level rise across the south-central Bahamian islands, as an initial step to determine suitable areas for Kirtland’s Warblers in the region. We used a Random Forest (RF) classification of multispectral satellite image bands and indices from Landsat and Sentinel-2 image composites to predict land cover. The classification identified tropical dry forest communities (broadleaved, semi-evergreen trees and shrubs known as coppice) as dominant, including inland coppice on limestone substrates, coastal coppice on sandy soils, and agricultural and disturbed areas. Variable importance analysis highlighted near-infrared, shortwave infrared, and vegetation indices as key predictors of land cover. The RF model performed well, achieving an overall accuracy of 92% (Out-of-Bag error: 7.94%), with strong performance for mangrove swamp, beach, and saline flat classes. However, classification error occurred between some classes due to spectral similarities, including between disturbed and coastal coppice. For instance, recently disturbed post-fire coppice was misclassified as coastal coppice in some areas. In addition to determining accuracy based on satellite imagery, we conducted ground-truthing on a subset of islands. Field validation confirmed high classification accuracy for some classes such as inland coppice and mangrove swamp. Sea level rise modeling revealed that coastal coppice and edge habitat along roads are highly vulnerable, with over 20% projected to be lost under a 2-m rise scenario on some islands. To our knowledge, our study provides one of the most detailed and up-to-date land cover classifications of the south-central Bahamian islands and serves as a foundation for future habitat suitability modeling and adaptive management of Kirtland’s Warbler and other species. In addition, we document there will be extensive loss of both land cover and human infrastructure (roads) due to sea level rise in the future, highlighting the urgency and need for integrating climate resilience into policy and regional planning in The Bahamas. This thesis is available in open access at AURA (https://aura.antioch.edu).

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ORCID iD 0000-0003-2339-3014

Cole Scrivner, MS, AWB®, CE, is a wildlife biologist, ecologist, and conservation scientist with a strong foundation in field ecology, habitat assessments, and applied conservation research. Scrivner completed a BT in Wildlife Management at The State University of New York College of Agriculture and Technology at Cobleskill, gaining extensive experience conducting avian surveys, mammal monitoring, habitat evaluations, and ecological fieldwork across the northeastern United States.

His master’s thesis focused on land cover classification and habitat change analysis for the Kirtland’s Warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii) in the south-central Bahamian islands. This work emphasized the challenges of mapping spectrally similar vegetation communities, assessing habitat availability, and modeling land cover loss under projected sea-level rise scenarios. Using supervised classification, multispectral imagery, and GIS-based spatial analyses, the research contributes to ongoing conservation planning for this near-threatened migratory species.

In addition to his thesis research, he has contributed to ecological and wildlife consulting projects involving natural resource inventories, wetland delineations, wildlife surveys, environmental permitting, habitat assessments, and restoration-focused project work. His consulting background emphasizes ecological restoration, wildlife biology, and ecosystem-based land management strategies. He is also engaged in continued research with Kirtland’s Warbler research team and regularly assists with additional wildlife and habitat studies throughout New York State.

He is currently expanding an ecological consulting practice as a sole proprietor, integrating applied conservation science with practical environmental services. Future goals include advancing effective habitat protection, supporting sustainable land stewardship, and contributing to the long-term conservation of vulnerable wildlife species.

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